This was supposed to be released last night but due to technical difficulties I lost my post and sending this out in a slightly revised format.
As you know I generally kick off with the European commentary but not before catching up on the Asian session overnight. I’m reluctantly posting, what is in essence, now an end of day group of indicator charts. Two sets, 15 mins and 5 min.
Thereafter, I will return to the usual schedule of yesterday events using time stamped charts as posted on Chart.ly
And the 5 min chart, I have shaded Light Sweet Crude, 10 Year and $ Index 17:00 – 18:00pm BST and will describe a trade that sucked during the US halftime, towards the end of the post.
Okay, got remote in hand now rewind back to yesterday – lets begin!
Just when you thought it was safe to go to sleep – Standard & Poor’s takes rating action on Spain (S&P doc) ~ 3 a.m BST, rubbed my eyes, glanced at the colour blind test numbers to ensure I read that tweet correctly. Impetuous to set up earlier than usual, ran through Euro charts with an outlook negative!
You can drown your sorrows during the Oktoberfest but it’s going to be ‘The Hangover 3.’ come G20.
I couldn’t give a Castlemaine four X. Will wait and see what happens – caution the 4 X is taken from an old Aussie beer commercial so don’t blame me if you google that and get more than what you bargained for!
Papandreou’s going to lose a tooth, Sarkozy’s going to wake up but naked on Merkel’s floor with ring on finger and an I love Angela tattoo across his chest.
Jean Claude, will be the only beneficiary out this fiasco who’s probably in for a golden handshake – will mis his aaacom-moooooo-daaaaaaaaaay-tive and other contradicting price stability sound bites.
Geithner and Lagarde will be wetting themselves with hysteria in the Elvis Chapel having already purchased bailout souvenirs, to be honest who really cares it’s beyond a joke more like a nightmare on Sesame Street – focus is now on the election circus and occupy which ever street you can! It will be interesting to see what this sleeping giant manages to achieve. The Arab Spring had a purpose a means to an end, is it time for results at this end?
You can come up with any spoof scenario at will, either way you slice it, it’s an expensive movie – save yourselves from buying the ticket and overpriced popcorn and wait for the re runs on cable.
First chart of the day in full Technicolor, is one of Stoxx50 Index Futures have laid up bipartisan trades running North & South with the same Channel in place.
5 min chart, 12:13 BST http://chart.ly/asd83x4
Mirrored by the BUND 15 mins chart 12:42 BST http://chart.ly/ium9vw2
Looking good so far, with some interesting channels and near perfect double tops and bottoms.
Shame I had to zoom into the DAX chart, I was unable to print a clear channel so I have only shown the ascending channel support line with double bottom. http://chart.ly/uicosn8
In the middle of a vote of confidence to verify if Berlusconi still knows how to organise a party and waiting if the man in the white suit and panama hat from Del Monte says ‘Party On’ sorry ‘Yes’
Retail Sales leading the way, decent reaction in US Futures and $EURUSD and euro indicators lagging behind, not as dramatic as I had expected as the BUND was close to test the support http://chart.ly/gr2ra3g but perhaps a simple precaution ahead of the US cash open and the Michigan Confidence data.
Although the DAX did play peek a boo above the big Six Oh level, albeit for an instant to reminisce in pastures old before returning to the poor side of the fence http://chart.ly/6xuknf3
Oil futures jumping the gun and giving the EURUSD and DAX a lift higher, initial spike in the previous candle just highlighting the proverbial dollar strength common on data releases.
If you’ve got the appetite of an adrenaline junkie and reflexes of a black box pretending to travel at the speed of light – get in there! http://chart.ly/8xdndwx
Not had the time to post actual $EURUSD or $ES_F charts on this occasion as I was simply focussed on my trades and as usual I had too many lines!
So, now it’s 8 mins after the Nymex Pit and the 10 yr is looking quite heavy ahead of cash on Michigan, similar pullback as observed on Wednesday 12th at 18:00 BST. So a possible triple bottom outlook.
10 yr dropping out of one channel to the next giving a soft ‘V’ shape pattern, well ‘U’ shape really! http://chart.ly/8ggvw4v did suggest some divergences in play but I tend not to trade off them, as the components required to plot slope on the RSI or MACD histogram is generally sufficient to get you to trigger a trade anyway!
So scrolling through the tells, I noticed another channel on the BUND http://chart.ly/wi3egtp and decided to play the EURUSD on the back of this.
If you’re familiar with and up to speed on recent conversations, you’ll appreciate that I’ve taken to Ichimoku like a duck to water! Pick n mixing with Andrew’s pitchforks and the use of bread and butter pivots, support and resistance.
Set about scalping on a 2 min chart http://chart.ly/8b9kjag and BUND looking heavy nearing the close and now a head and shoulder in the mix, good that a few members got in on the conversation – can’t say how I was feeling about the head and shoulders, was it a viable pattern or just coincidence as I’ve been criticised for pointing out patterns outside the StockTwits and Twitter arena, that weren’t technically correct as it’s not on a high so it’s not this and that – to be honest it’s all relative on the timescale that you’re operating on. Just as you can see shapes and patterns in clouds – constantly shape shifting. Merely pointing out an observation and the rest is down to personal judgement – It’s not an excuse as I stand behind my posts – charts never lie, despite being proven to be wrong on many occasion. Just as some waiting for the H&S to break on the flipside have stop hunters and bulls reinforcing the line – a sentiment play on technicals. Hmm this is dangerously close to becoming a rant – time to move on.
http://chart.ly/3vomdsx had to decide how are we going to play this game of paper, scissors, stone/rock or break, reverse, or resistance.
I did say that we were channel hopping today! 10 yr knocking out a range, volume dropped off after the main event and was considering if this channel was leading up to key resistance on the $SPY and a giant flush into the close..? http://chart.ly/8m398dj
Last Trade of the Day
I decided to play this range, and it was a slow grind – and before you ask. No it was not boredom trading – the range was in place – just that Oil was slow to react in my timeframe decided to wake up after I got out.
I was long based on the 10 yr channel resistance. I knew I was going to be in for at least 30 mins to possibly and 1 hr depending on volume
$ Index starting to run out of juice and Oil ranging and but $SPY failing to get up,
So $ Index and $SPY was a major concern but 10 yr was the most active and currently lighting the way forward and so I stayed with my long $ES_F
You can argue that I should have waited for the prevailing candles to close
Should I have taken a few ticks when the opportunity presented itself, quite possibly! But I wanted to target the $ZN_F support line and not had a tick nor point target for this trade. I will patiently wait for the $SPY to go higher at key resistance to take profits. Then reverse the trade on covering and then looking to ride the potential short trade on flush to the close. With an idea of taking intraday pit stops at nearby moving averages, sounds reasonable…
$CL_F was starting to fade and toggling between different timescales wasn’t helping me – in fact the price action was giving me conflicting messages.
I eventually got out a few ticks shy of a scratch – not happy to see it pull higher thereafter – and I also got the close wrong too! I could say that’s life – but I’ll stick with ‘hands up I got it wrong!’
Charts below, highlight an estimate of my entry an exits – I was trying to match up the timeframes for visual aid only – and the expanded EOD charts not really doing justice to the moment – but I hope you get the gist of the trade!
Trading the $ES_F on a 2 min and the $CL_F $ZN_F $DX_F and $SPY tells were actually on 5 min charts.
I hope I’ve checked for spelling mistakes!
My last few streams have been cut short and reckon that my smartphone is playing stupid for some reason and I’ll say what I was trying to post now. Key data for tomorrow.
Enjoy what’s left of the weekend and catch you all tomorrow!